Consumers Have Confidence in 2016
The
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased
moderately in November, improved in December. The Index now stands at
96.5 (1985=100), up from 92.6 in November. The Present Situation Index
increased from 110.9 last month to 115.3 in December, while the
Expectations Index improved to 83.9 from 80.4 in November.
“Consumer confidence improved in December, following a moderate decrease
in November,” says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The
Conference Board. “As 2015 drew to a close, consumers’ assessment of the
current state of the economy remains positive, particularly their
assessment of the job market. Looking ahead to 2016, consumers are
expecting little change in both business conditions and the labor
market. Expectations regarding their financial outlook are mixed, but
the optimists continue to outweigh the pessimists.”
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design
random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a
leading global provider of information and analytics around what
consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was
December 15.
Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was mixed in December. Those
saying business conditions are “good” increased from 25.0 percent to
27.3 percent. However, those saying business conditions are “bad” also
increased from 16.9 percent to 19.8 percent. Consumers, however, were
more positive about the labor market. The proportion claiming jobs are
“plentiful” increased from 21.0 percent to 24.1 percent, while those
claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 24.7 percent from 25.8
percent.
Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook was somewhat mixed in
December. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next
six months decreased slightly to 15.2 percent from 15.7 percent.
However, those expecting business conditions to worsen increased
slightly to 11.0 percent from 10.6 percent.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was more optimistic. Those
anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased slightly to 12.9
percent from 12.0 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased
from 18.5 percent to 16.6 percent. The proportion of consumers
expecting their incomes to increase declined from 17.3 percent to 16.3
percent. However, the proportion expecting a reduction in income
decreased from 11.8 percent to 9.7 percent.
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